NDR: Dealing with Constant Change in the Markets

We are excited to introduce you to NDR's Signal Exchange, a new series of 3-5 minute videos where the Strategists of Ned Davis Research answer your top questions about the financial markets. Whether it's a timely event or a deep dive into NDR's approach and methodology, our experts are here to provide you with valuable insights.

In our first episode, Alejandra Grindal, NDR's Chief Economist, addresses a common client question: How does NDR approach a constantly changing environment and the reliability of our economic indicators?

Here are the key points from the discussion:

• Examples of recession signals from the inverted yield curve and leading economic indicators that turned out incorrect, not just during the pandemic but also in 2011 and 2016.
•  Using a weight of the evidence approach, examining dozens to hundreds of indicators across various models.
• Making calls based on the majority of indicators aligning, increasing conviction as evidence grows.
• In 2023, despite some indicators signaling a recession, NDR's comprehensive approach did not find significant confirmation.
•  We break down reports for other economies, including the global economy, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and China.

If you have questions or want deeper analysis, feel free to submit them for our next episode by emailing neddavisresearch@ndr.com.

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Ned Davis Research, Inc. (NDR), or any affiliates or employees, or any third-party data provider, shall not have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any NDR publication. The data and analysis contained herein are provided “as is.” NDR disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Past recommendations and model results are not a guarantee of future results. Using any graph, chart, formula or other device to assist in deciding which securities to trade or when to trade them presents many difficulties and their effectiveness has significant limitations, including that prior patterns may not repeat themselves continuously or on any particular occasion. In addition, market participants using such devices can impact the market in a way that changes the effectiveness of such device. This communication reflects our analysts’ opinions as of the date of this communication and will not necessarily be updated as views or information change. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. NDR, or its affiliated companies, or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees, may have long or short positions in the securities discussed herein and may purchase or sell such securities without notice.