In our recent Global Economics Focus, Alejandra Grindal gave an in depth look on where she sees global growth is heading in the back half of 2023. She wrote that despite rough conditions to start the beginning of the year, the global economy has shown notable resilience. Economic momentum not only remained positive, but also accelerated throughout the first half. Our Global Recession Probability Model came out of the high-risk zone in July for the first time since January 2022 (IE90B). The model peaked in November and has been edging down consistently since then.
However, we’re not out of the woods just yet. We see that ability to maintain accelerating momentum will be more challenging in the second half of 2023. Businesses and households will continue to face tighter credit conditions in the U.S. and Europe as the impact of the past year’s tight monetary policy continues to slowly work its way into the global economy.
To read more of Alejandra’s take, fill out the form on the right to gain access.