NDR: Market Momentum

In a recent appearance on Closing Bell Overtime, Tim Hayes, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Ned Davis Research, broke down the forces shaping today’s markets—from a remarkably long U.S. bull run to the renewed strength across emerging economies. Which leaves investors asking: Can this momentum continue?

Tim described the current U.S. equity bull market as unusually mature—twice the length of the historical median and now the ninth longest since 1900. While headline indices remain strong, he noted weakening market breadth and growing complacency among investors, leaving the market vulnerable as it heads into a pivotal earnings season. Hayes emphasized that the market still needs renewed momentum to sustain another leg higher.

In contrast, Hayes highlighted broad-based strength across emerging markets. Over the past year, developments such as improving EM currencies, attractive valuations—especially in tech—and resilience during U.S. market softness have fueled EM outperformance. Countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, and South Africa have benefited from both tech leadership and commodity tailwinds. EM tech, in particular, has reached new highs even as U.S. tech has lagged, suggesting investors are rotating into better-value growth opportunities abroad.

Despite concerns about U.S. market maturity, Hayes said NDR continues to maintain a modest overweight in equities in keeping with its “don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed” philosophy. With the Federal Reserve leaning more accommodative, Hayes sees potential for markets to push higher—provided earnings deliver or momentum revives in the weeks ahead.

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