NDR:  Most long-term stock trend charts look overvalued

Most long-term stock trend charts suggest equities are overvalued, though total return measures paint a less extreme picture. Housing and the U.S. Dollar also appear overvalued, while gold is nearing overvalued levels and oil looks undervalued relative to its long-term trend. Charts of the real S&P 500 Index show it trading well above its historical growth trend of 6.8% since 1925, reaching levels not seen since 2000 (chart above). 

However, when considering the S&P 500 Total Return Index, which includes dividends, stocks appear less overvalued, reflecting the shift toward buybacks and reinvestment rather than direct dividend payouts.

Despite this, most long-term stock charts remain overextended, and valuations are high by traditional metrics.

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