NDR: Second half global economic outlook

This chart shows NDR's Global Recession Probability Model, which is designed to identify OECD-defined global slowdowns, a condition historically consistent with cyclical bear markets in global equities. Looking forward to the reading for July, our model ticked up to 18.5% from 12.3% in the prior month. Although this was the first increase in the model in six months, it’s still showing a very low risk of a sustained global slowdown and is consistent with solid equity market returns. 
Historically, we have found that the model bottoms an average of nine months before the next global slowdown. This means that even if June marked the cycle bottom, the global economy should remain on solid footing through at least early next year.

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