NDR: All eyes on dividend investing

Over the past five years, inflation has fluctuated dramatically, driven by COVID-era disruptions, government stimulus, and policy shifts. This has sparked debate over whether the U.S. economy is entering a period of persistently higher inflation and slower growth. Amid demographic shifts, rising debt, and AI-driven changes, terms like “stagflation” and “soft landing” have resurfaced. While the long-term changes may feel more dramatic than they are, staying data-driven is key.

NDR’s Growth and Inflation Regime Analysis Tool identifies how different assets perform across economic conditions. For dividend-focused investors, recent regime shifts are especially relevant. Since March, the U.S. has entered a rare weak growth, neutral inflation regime—historically the best for Dividend Payers (chart above). This is especially Growers, who have outperformed the S&P 500 by 6.2% annually. In contrast, Non-Payers tend to lag across most regimes, especially under weak growth conditions. Only during rising growth and falling inflation have Non-Payers outperformed the broader market.

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