Why Macro Matters
A Global Economic Framework to Identify Opportunities and Risks
At Ned Davis Research (NDR), we believe that historical macroeconomic analysis sets the stage for broader investment decisions. Our process is highly dependent on historical evidence and integrating a wide data set to gauge the economic regime..
When analyzing the correct macroeconomic indicators, both cyclical and secular, investors can gain important insight into asset allocation, as well as geographical and sector positioning. This includes analyzing various components of the economy and putting the pieces of the puzzle together for a more informed and empirically backed analysis and insights.
In this paper, we demonstrate this approach and how we implement the various global macroeconomic concepts. Among the topics we cover are:
- The business cycle
- Monetary and fiscal policy
- Inflation
- Consumption and investment spending
- Economic surprises and outsized changes in data
- Risk factors such as credit and demographics